By Lucia Mutikani and Jonathan Cable
WASHINGTON/LONDON (Reuters) – U.S. and Euro zone business activity gathered pace in April, according to surveys released on Friday, despite central bankers signaling they are nearing the peak of their interest rate hiking cycles designed to cool demand enough among consumers to bring high inflation down.
S&P Global said its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, increased to 53.5 this month. That was the highest level since last May and followed a final reading of 52.3 in March. It is at odds with growing signs that the economy is in danger of slipping into recession as higher interest rates begin to bite.
It was the third straight month that the PMI remained above 50, indicating growth in the private sector. The survey data was collected April 12-20.
The survey’s flash services sector PMI rose to 53.7, the highest reading in a year, from 52.6 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI falling to 51.5.
The survey’s flash manufacturing PMI increased to 50.4, a six-month high, from 49.2 in March. Economists had forecast the index at 49. New orders increased, ending six straight months of contraction.
GRAPHIC: Flash PMI https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-STOCKS/gdvzqbyzopw/flashpmi.png
In the euro zone, the bloc’s dominant services industry saw already-buoyant demand rise too, more than offsetting a deepening downturn in manufacturing.
HCOB’s flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, jumped to an 11-month high of 54.4 in April from March’s 53.7.
A PMI covering the services industry soared to 56.6 this month from 55.0, confounding expectations in the Reuters poll for a decline to 54.5 and the new business index rose to a one-year high of 55.8 from 54.2. However, the manufacturing PMI fell to 45.5 from 47.3, its lowest since the coronavirus pandemic was cementing its grip on the world three years ago.
“The PMI sheds a positive light on the economic performance in the euro zone, as a pickup in service sector activity is boosting growth,” said Bert Colijn, senior euro zone economist at ING, noting manufacturing weakness remained a concern.
MIXED SIGNALS
In the United States at least though, the so-called hard data are increasingly painting a darker picture. The labor market is cooling, retail sales are declining and manufacturing output is slumping, leading most economists to forecast a recession as early as the second half of the year.
Banks have tightened lending, which could make credit less accessible to households and small businesses. The Institute for Supply Management surveys, which have a longer history, have suggested loss of momentum in the vast services sector in March and significant deterioration in manufacturing conditions.
Still, inflation pressures, according to the surveys, continued to bubble. The U.S. survey’s measure of new orders received by private businesses surged to 53.2 this month, also the highest reading since last May. The increase, which was across the services and manufacturing sectors, meant inflation pressures picked up this month. The survey’s measure of prices paid by businesses for inputs also rose.
“This increase helps explain why core inflation has proven stubbornly elevated at 5.6% and points to a possible upturn, or at least some stickiness, in consumer price inflation,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The Federal Reserve remains set to raise interest rates at its May 2-3 meeting but key data between now and then, particularly a survey of bank lending officers, may shape how policymakers weight the risks facing the economy and whether to pause further increases.
Both the Fed and the European Central Bank are struggling to get inflation anywhere near their 2% target.
Likewise, the strong services performance in the Euro zone could mean that wage pressures continue in the region, complicating the ECB’s efforts to tame inflation, some economists noted.
Danske Bank’s Piet Haines Christiansen said ECB policymakers would likely focus on the rise in services PMI “notably due to the close link to the wage dynamics” in a sector where wages represent some of the biggest costs.
The ECB is expected to raise rates for a seventh straight meeting on May 4, with policymakers converging on a 25-basis-point hike even if a larger move is not yet off the table, sources with direct knowledge of the discussions have told Reuters.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Jonathan Cable and Indradip Ghosh; Writing by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Hugh Lawson, Mark John, Christina Fincher and Andrea Ricci)
