French President Emmanuel Macron’s push to enlist China’s help to sketch out parameters for possible talks between Russia and Ukraine has drawn criticism from some allies who think that such an effort is premature and fear it could undermine European unity.
(Bloomberg) — French President Emmanuel Macron’s push to enlist China’s help to sketch out parameters for possible talks between Russia and Ukraine has drawn criticism from some allies who think that such an effort is premature and fear it could undermine European unity.
Macron’s strategy, which envisions a framework for talks between Moscow and Kyiv as soon as this summer if all goes well, may muddy the water regarding Ukraine’s demand that Russia relinquish all Ukrainian territory, according to officials in some European capitals.
Bloomberg News earlier reported the details of the French idea, which would see foreign policy adviser Emmanuel Bonne work with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, according to people familiar with the plan.
“Macron is dealing with exactly what a Western leader should not be dealing with,” Marko Mihkelson, chairman of the foreign affairs committee in Estonia’s parliament, told the public broadcaster ERR Wednesday. “Where does he get the fact that China can be trusted as an honest mediator in the current situation?”
‘International Law’
A spokesperson from the Elysee said in a statement that during Macron’s Beijing trip earlier this month, Chinese President Xi Jinping said he was ready to work toward a negotiation. The statement added that France’s diplomatic adviser and the secretary of China’s foreign relations commission will exchange views on “how to achieve peace while respecting Ukraine’s legitimate rights.”
Macron told Xi “that such a negotiation should be done in accordance with international law and the sovereignty of Ukraine,” according to the statement. “He said that only the Ukrainians should decide.”
Some have expressed skepticism that China can serve as a neutral intermediary given its “no-limits friendship” with Russia. The countries have repeatedly pledged to strengthen ties, including a call on Monday to boost cooperation between their militaries.
One European diplomat in Beijing said France may succeed in getting parties to the negotiating table but then may not know what to do once they are there.
Intelligence, Charm
Ukraine’s de facto presidential spokesman, Mikhail Podolyak, said in a television interview in response to the Bloomberg story that Kyiv couldn’t envisage any compromise that preserved the status quo with regards to territory Russia has occupied. “This is not a peace plan — it’s a way of Ukraine’s capitulation.”
“One can put forward any peace initiatives but there is the main point in the foundation of it all — the withdrawal of Russian troops,” Podolyak said. “If this provision is included, then it can be regarded as a serious plan.”
Macron has shown a willingness to conduct solo diplomatic efforts, many of which have come up short. He traveled to China in early April, seeking to convince Xi to talk to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, but left without such a commitment from Xi, who hasn’t spoken to Zelenskiy since the war started more than a year ago.
The French president kept in regular contact with Vladimir Putin over the past six years, and he rolled out the red carpet for the Russian president in Versailles just a month after his election in 2017. Macron traveled to Moscow in February of 2022 to try to get assurances that Moscow wouldn’t invade Ukraine. French officials then said they had received a commitment from Putin not to escalate the situation, which the Kremlin later denied. Two weeks later, Russia invaded Ukraine.
Macron has previously said that he sees a major role for China and that thanks to its relationship with Russia it could “bring Moscow back to reason.” Beijing so far hasn’t shown signs that it’s willing to pressure Moscow to withdraw troops.
“There’s the idea that Macron can bring them back to reason with his intelligence and his charm,” Thomas Gomart, Head of the French Institute for International Relations, said in an interview. “But maybe he’s wrong.”
Germany and France are coordinating on Macron’s initiative, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Over the past months, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz repeatedly insisted that Russia first has to withdraw troops from occupied territory in Ukraine before there can be negotiations about a peace agreement.
Zelenskiy said on Telegram over the weekend that he talked with Macron about his recent visit to China. The two spoke about the next steps in organizing a peace summit, according to an official in Macron’s office.
“Macron is following the same path that he has shown in recent years, when he tried to forcefully invite Russia to dialog,” the Estonian lawmaker Mihkelson told ERR. “Even now, hoping that China will bring Russia to its senses, Macron is signaling that he is ready to deal with the war criminal Putin.”
–With assistance from Alberto Nardelli, Michael Nienaber, Alex Wickham, Natalia Drozdiak, Jasmina Kuzmanovic, Ott Tammik, Colum Murphy, Kateryna Choursina and Chiara Albanese.
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