These Are the Key Foreign Power Brokers in the Sudan Conflict

Fighting between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group has claimed the lives of at least 97 civilians, set back hopes of a return to civilian rule after a 2021 coup and sparked fears of a full-blown civil war.

(Bloomberg) — Fighting between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group has claimed the lives of at least 97 civilians, set back hopes of a return to civilian rule after a 2021 coup and sparked fears of a full-blown civil war.

Any escalation in the conflict would reverberate across northeast Africa and further afield given that Sudan borders on seven other countries and the Red Sea, and has drawn a number of foreign companies intent on tapping its abundant mineral and oil reserves.

These are some of the key international players:

The Quad

The United Arab Emirates, the UK, US and Saudi Arabia set up a group known as the Quad that tried to restore elements of civilian rule after the coup. The conflict threatens to derail plans for a power-sharing agreement and ultimately democratic elections. While the UAE and Saudi Arabia have lobbied both sides to stop fighting, the two nations forged close ties with RSF head Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo after he dispatched troops to fight in Yemen, where the two Gulf powerhouses have also been active. There are also major commercial considerations at play for the UAE: In December, an Emirati consortium signed a $6 billion preliminary agreement with Sudan’s government to build a new port and other infrastructure on the Red Sea coast.

Read more: What’s Behind the Fighting in Sudan and What It Means: QuickTake

Ethiopia and Egypt

Ethiopia’s construction of a giant dam on a tributary of the Nile has raised hackles in neighboring Egypt and Sudan, which rely on the river for most of their fresh water. Chaos in Sudan could complicate talks aimed at resolving a standoff over how quickly the billion cubic-meter (2.6 trillion cubic-foot) reservoir behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is filled. The instability in Sudan could deprive Egypt — which has traditionally been a strong backer of the Sudanese army — of a key ally in its opposition to the project.

Read more: Why Ethiopia’s $5 Billion Dam Has Riled Its Neighbors: QuickTake

Russia

Russia’s government has been seeking to forge closer relations with Sudan and other African countries as Western powers seek to isolate it over its invasion of Ukraine. Last year, Dagalo met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and their governments agreed to deepen ties in agriculture, mining, manufacturing, oil and gas. The Wagner Group, a Kremlin-linked private military contractor, already has interests in Sudan’s gold-mining industry. Russia has also lobbied Sudan to secure a military base on the Red Sea. Russia hasn’t specified whether it is taking sides in the latest conflict.

Read more: How a Sanctioned Russian Company Gained Access to Sudan’s Gold

China

China is one of the biggest foreign investors in Sudan, having maintained links with dictator Omar al-Bashir’s administration and the current military rulers even as Western nations imposed sanctions and blocked aid. The state-owned China National Petroleum Corp. owns oil assets in Sudan, including a key stake in the main refinery in Khartoum, the capital, a share in an oil pipeline that ferries crude from neighboring South Sudan. There’s a risk that those could be damaged or nationalized, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. China is backing a $640 million restoration of Sudan’s railway network, with CRRC Ziyang Co. supplying the country with freight-train carriages.

Read more: China Adds Call for Cease-fire in Sudan as Civilian Deaths Climb

Chad and the Central African Republic

Sudan’s neighbors could potentially play a role in the conflict if it continues and escalates, particularly in the western Darfur region where clashes have been reported. CAR President Faustin-Archange Touadéra is close to Dagalo — with their forces teaming up with Wagner mercenaries to fight against anti-government rebel groups in northeastern CAR. Chad’s leader Mahamat Déby is seen as an ally of Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who heads the Sudanese army.

–With assistance from Jeremy Diamond.

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