Ukraine Latest: Allies Fear Breakthrough May Not Come in 2023

The US government is struggling to explain how a 21-year-old man in a junior post was in a position to allegedly leak a massive trove of classified US documents related to the Ukraine conflict. Jack Teixeira, a cyber specialist for the US Air Force National Guard, was arrested in Massachusetts and is scheduled to be arraigned in US District Court in Boston on Friday.

(Bloomberg) — The US government is struggling to explain how a 21-year-old man in a junior post was in a position to allegedly leak a massive trove of classified US documents related to the Ukraine conflict. Jack Teixeira, a cyber specialist for the US Air Force National Guard, was arrested in Massachusetts and is scheduled to be arraigned in US District Court in Boston on Friday.

Moscow would consider swapping a Wall Street Journal reporter jailed for spying last month for a Russian prisoner held by the US, but only after the American is convicted, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said, according to Tass.

Some of Ukraine’s European allies are skeptical its military will be able to make a decisive breakthrough this year. The worries come at a time Hungary’s Viktor Orban said EU support for Kyiv can’t go on “indefinitely,” comments that brought praise from Moscow and a sharp rebuke from Ukraine’s foreign ministry. 

Key Developments

  • Ukraine’s Allies Fear Breakthrough May Not Come in 2023
  • US Humiliated Over 21-Year-Old’s Alleged Tie to Secrets Leak 
  • China Sends Defense Minister to Russia for First Time Since War
  • Russia Oil Cap Works as Planned With Flows Up, Revenue Down 
  • What We Know About the Leak of US Military Documents: Q&A 
  • Radar Maker Sees Order Jump on Clearing Ukraine’s Skies 

(All times CET)  

Russia Economy Ministry Sees 2023 GDP Growth at 1.2%, Tass Reports (1:35 p.m.)

Russia expects 2023 GDP growth at 1.2%, Tass reported, citing economy minister Maxim Reshetnikov. Inflation is seen at 5.3% at the end of the year. 

Germany Radar Maker Sees Rising Defense Orders (1:09 p.m.)

Germany’s Hensoldt AG expects rising orders for its medium-range air defense radar as the system helps Ukraine intercept more than 90% of Russian aircraft over its skies.

The defense contractor, which generated €1.7 billion ($1.9 billion) in revenue last year, expects a three-digit-million euro volume of orders for the TRML-4D, Chief Executive Officer Thomas Mueller said in an interview with Bloomberg News.  

The company has delivered four truck-mounted radars to Ukraine, which uses them as part of the IRIS-T air defense missile system produced by Bavarian-based Diehl Defence. Hensoldt will deliver another two radars later this year.  

Allies Fear Ukraine’s Breakthrough May Not Come This Year (1:04 p.m.)

Some of Ukraine’s European allies are increasingly skeptical its military will be able to make a decisive breakthrough this year because Russia’s defenses have had time to dig in ahead of Kyiv’s looming offensive — one that President Volodymyr Zelenskiy foreshadowed again on Thursday night. 

The mood among Western officials marks a sharp departure from late last year, when Kyiv surprised its allies – as well as Russia – with a pair of successful counteroffensives that recaptured large swathes of occupied land.  

Some European officials see Ukraine’s most capable artillery as being able to drive back Russia by about 20 miles and create conditions for a deeper push in  2024. 

Read more: Ukraine’s Allies Fear Breakthrough May Not Come Before Next Year  

Ukraine Calls Orban Comments on Support ‘Cynical’ (12:20 p.m.)

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that the European Union’s financial commitment to Ukraine is damaging the bloc’s economy and “obviously it cannot go on indefinitely.” 

“The question is whether we will maintain Ukraine,” Orban said on state radio. “The moment the Americans and Europe say no to that question, the war is over.” The comments drew plaudits from Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, as “brave and precise.”

Oleg Nikolenko, spokesman for Ukraine’s foreign ministry, called the comments “cynical” given that “Hungary itself is receiving a lot of money from the European Union to support its economic stability.” By supporting Ukraine, “Europe is investing primarily in its own security,” he said.

Ukraine’s Energoatom Sues Russia for Occupation of Nuclear Plant (12 p.m.)

Ukrainian nuclear operator Energoatom initiated international arbitration proceedings against Russia for damages caused by its military action that it estimates topped $3 billion, according to a statement on the company’s website. This includes the occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and other Ukrainian assets temporarily controlled by Russia. 

The case follows another action, launched in 2021, connected to expropriation of Energoatom’s assets in Crimea, the company said.

China Criticizes Polish Premier Over Taiwan, Ukraine Comments (11:45 a.m.)

China has expressed “strong dissatisfaction and vehement opposition” to comments from a Polish government official it didn’t name that drew comparisons between the situations of Taiwan and Ukraine.

The embassy urged the official to “exercise caution” regarding the Taiwan issue and “avoid disrupting Chinese-Polish relations.”

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said during an event hosted by the Atlantic Council on Thursday that “if Ukraine gets conquered, the next day China may attack, can attack Taiwan.”

Russia Holds Snap Drills of Pacific Fleet North of Japan (11 a.m.)

Russia is holding unplanned military drills in the Sea of Okhotsk north of Japan, using ships and long-range bombers to repel a simulated attack on Sakhalin and the disputed islands near it, Tass reported.

The country’s Pacific Fleet was put on high alert as part of the snap exercises, Interfax said. The maneuvers will practice “actions to prevent the enemy from marshaling forces in an operatively important area of the Pacific Ocean — the south of the Sea of Okhotsk — and repelling landings on the southern Kuril Islands and Sakhalin,” Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu told officials, according to Tass.

Japan claims four islands in the Kuril chain as its own but Russia has occupied them since the end of World War II. In recent years, Moscow has built up military installations there.

IAEA Inspecting Effort to Connect Zaporizhzhia to Russian Grid (9 a.m.)

Efforts by the Kremlin-controlled Rosatom Corp. to connect the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to the electricity grid in Russian-controlled territory will be inspected next week, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. While re-connecting cables to more back-up power would reduce the risk of an accident, doing so via territories held by Moscow would further diminish Ukraine’s control over the site.

“We are living on borrowed time when it comes to nuclear safety and security at the Zaporizhzhya,” IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said in a statement late Thursday. “Unless we take action to protect the plant, our luck will sooner or later run out, with potentially severe consequences for human health and the environment.”

Warmer weather is prompting Rosatom operators to cool a fifth Zaporizhzhia reactor, leaving just a single unit in so-called hot shutdown to provide hot water and steam to the site, the IAEA reported.  

Fiercest Fighting Seen In Ukraine’s Bakhmut (7:50 a.m.)

Russia continues to focus its main efforts on offensive operations in Bakhmut and Maryinka, in the besieged Donetsk region, with Ukraine’s troops repelled 49 attacks in past 24 hours, according to Ukraine’s military authorities. 

The UK defense ministry said Russian troops have “re-energized” their assault on Bakhmut, with better cooperation apparent between ministry of defense and Wagner Group forces who’ve been at odds. 

Ukraine’s troops still hold the western districts of the town but have been subjected to particularly intense Russian artillery fire over the previous 48 hours, the UK said in a Twitter thread. “Ukrainian forces face significant resupply issues but have made orderly withdrawals from the positions they have been forced to concede.” 

Suspect Arrested in Document Leak was Cyber Specialist (10:58 p.m.)

The FBI arrested Teixeira in connection with the leak of highly classified documents including maps, intelligence updates and the assessment of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The cyber specialist for the US Air Force National Guard will be charged with “unauthorized removal, retention and transmission of classified national defense information,” Attorney General Merrick Garland told reporters at a Washington press conference.

The leaked trove of classified US documents on Ukraine is a mixture of true, false and outdated information, the country’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said separately. The leak would clearly appear to benefit Russia and its supporters, he said. 

Ukraine Secured $42 Billion in Support This Year, Central Banker Says (10:02 p.m.)

Ukraine has secured $42 billion in international support this year, including $4.6 billion from the International Monetary Fund, deputy central bank governor Sergiy Nikolaychuk said. 

“International partners promised to provide us during the next four years an amount of $150 billion,” Nikolaychuk said in an interview on Bloomberg TV, a figure that includes a $15.6 billion program from the IMF.

Ukraine received $32 billion in 2022, which “was not enough to cover all budget needs,” he said. In 2023, the economy will start to recover from the 29% contraction in gross domestic product last year.

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