France’s Constitutional Council will rule on Emmanuel Macron’s plan to raise the retirement age on Friday evening, a cardinal moment for an overhaul that has sparked mass protests, fractured parliament and left the president’s capacity to enact further changes hanging in the balance.
(Bloomberg) — France’s Constitutional Council will rule on Emmanuel Macron’s plan to raise the retirement age on Friday evening, a cardinal moment for an overhaul that has sparked mass protests, fractured parliament and left the president’s capacity to enact further changes hanging in the balance.
The nine-member body made up chiefly of former politicians and senior civil servants will rule on both the constitutional validity of the law and an opposition-backed request to put the reform to a referendum.
In the run-up to the decision, unions have renewed protests as polls show that a majority of French people side with strikers and oppose raising the minimum age to claim a pension to 64 from 62.
A wholesale rejection of the bill, the least likely outcome, would be disastrous for Macron, forcing his government to start from scratch with an emblematic reform it presented as crucial for balancing public finances and boosting employment.
“A surprise can’t be ruled out,” said Melody Mock-Gruet, a constitutional expert who specializes in parliamentary affairs. “It’s possible the Constitutional Council decides to censure the whole law because it considers the government misused procedure.”
Other possibilities include a full green light to the law or the censure of some peripheral elements that would allow it to be applied without those sections. In any case, the Constitutional Council could also approve a referendum procedure that is fraught with uncertainty and would drag on for months.
Different options
In their petitions to the Constitutional Council, opposition parties contested the use of a social security budget bill — and the restrictions on debate that allows — as a vehicle to make significant changes to the pension system. They also said the discussion in parliament lacked the sincerity and clarity required by prior Constitutional Council rulings.
Since it was created in 1958, the Constitutional Council has only rejected bills outright 17 times out of 744 cases, according to a column by public law professor Samy Benzina. It’s more likely that the authority would strike down some peripheral provisions of the text, notably a tool that would force large companies to publish information on efforts to hire and retain older workers.
Referendum
If the council decides the proposal for a referendum on the retirement age is constitutionally acceptable, proponents would have nine months to collect the signatures of at least 10% of registered voters, around 4.8 million people. Even if that were to be achieved, parliament could still derail the process by putting a bill on the topic back on its agenda.
Should the council approve both the retirement law and the referendum, the two could theoretically co-exist, with the reform entering into force in September even as preparation for a referendum goes ahead, posing an unprecedented legal issue.
Who decides?
A third of the Council’s members are appointed by the president, a third by the president of the National Assembly and another third by the president of the Senate. Former presidents are entitled to a seat but neither conservative Nicolas Sarkozy nor Socialist Francois Hollande have requested it.
The average age of the nine members, three of whom are women, is 72. Macron has appointed two of them, while the president, Laurent Fabius, was chosen by Hollande in 2016. Members are bound by an oath of impartiality and complete secrecy regarding deliberations and votes.
What next?
Unions have already said they will protest again May 1, a public holiday when labor unions traditionally march in the streets. They say the government could still send the bill back to parliament for another review, or Macron could chose not to enact the law — something that has happened in the past.
Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne has said the government must leave a bit of breathing space after the pension reform and ensure that labor unions are not left feeling humiliated. Macron, meanwhile, said he plans to meet with labor leaders after the ruling, whatever the decision.
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