Should Americans lose access to mifepristone, it would further ostracize young voters, independents and suburban women, who Republicans must win over.
(Bloomberg) — The future of the abortion pill — a legal fight now likely to make its way to the US Supreme Court — risks becoming the latest political hazard for Republicans who have already boxed themselves in on the issue.
Nearly a year after the Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade ruling was leaked and about 20 months before the 2024 presidential election, the party hasn’t developed an effective message on reproductive rights — while Democrats are using the issue as a way to unify their base. Should Americans, of whom 53% are in favor of abortion pills, now lose access to mifepristone, it would further ostracize young voters, independents and suburban women, who Republicans must win over.
The conundrum was on fresh display Wednesday, when US Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, who announced that he was exploring a 2024 presidential bid, repeatedly dodged questions in a CBS News interview as to whether he would support a federal ban on abortion as president. Democrats quickly pounced, circulating the clip on social media.
Read more: What Is Mifepristone and Why Is It Being Banned in the US?
“It’s up to politicians to put it front and center in terms of the stakes of the campaign,” said Katie Paris, founder of Red Wine and Blue, a group that seeks to turn out the vote among suburban women. “I think any candidate who chooses to do that in 2024 is going to have a pretty clear-cut case to make.”
For the first time in 15 years, Democrats won a majority on the Wisconsin state Supreme Court after Milwaukee judge Janet Protasiewicz spent millions on advertisements touting her support for abortion rights. The state court will likely decide the legality of a pre-Civil war abortion ban, so her victory only showcased how powerful reproductive rights remain for liberal voters.
Democrats also made gains in the counties around Milwaukee, Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington. Wisconsin Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski, who held rallies for Protasiewicz, credited the gains to suburban women turning to Democrats because of abortion and what she called “Dobbs Dads,” who are conservative but don’t want abortion restrictions to affect their daughters. That’s a reference to Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, the decision that overturned Roe.
The Wisconsin election adds to the recent losses for Republicans — namely a failed referendum to remove abortion rights protections in Kansas and a disappointing showing in the midterm elections last November. At the time, former President Donald Trump, who is seeking the Republican nomination in 2024, blamed the failures on the party’s inability to talk about abortion effectively.
Exit polls from the 2022 elections showed that the overturning of federal abortion rights heavily influenced voters, particularly women. Some 53% voted Democratic, helping President Joe Biden stem congressional losses — and pick up a seat in the US Senate — in what had seemed like a very favorable political environment for Republicans.
Read more: The Fight Over the Abortion Pill Is Just Getting Started
Even now, there is little consensus within the Republican Party about what should and should not be legal. Some anti-abortion groups want to see a national ban in place, while others would prefer to leave the legislating to individual states.
Frank Cannon, the chief political strategist for the anti-abortion group Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, said he did not think a candidate could win the Republican nomination without highlighting robust anti-abortion credentials — even if other strategists say taking too strong of a position could be a hindrance in the general election.
“What hurts Republicans is in the inability to define a position, articulate and defend it and to answer the attacks of our opponents,” Cannon said. “Republicans will not be able to go into the Iowa or South Carolina primaries and fudge a position on abortion.”
SBA Pro-Life America is advocating for a national ban, though Cannon said the group is open to a 15-week limit and exceptions for rape, incest or the life of the mother being in danger.
“I am expecting former President Trump will follow through on what he made happen,” Cannon added. “It would be in his interest to articulate a position that motivates pro-lifers who are central constituencies in the GOP party.”
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is widely expected to announce a campaign for president in June, already signed a bill barring abortions after 15 weeks and is backing a proposal to roll that back to six weeks, with exceptions for rape or incest until 15 weeks with documentation such as a police report.
On Wednesday night, a federal appeals court partly granted the Justice Department’s request to put off US District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk’s ruling that suspended the government’s decades-old approval of mifepristone. But a three-judge panel of the 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals allowed restrictions that were lifted in 2016 to be reinstated, including barring the drug from being mailed and limiting use to seven weeks. The court agreed to expedite an appeal.
Republicans were largely muted following the ruling last Friday. Former Vice President Mike Pence was the only potential presidential candidate to release a statement praising the decision. And Trump, who nominated Kacsmaryk and is notoriously boastful about delivering wins for his party, was conspicuously quiet.
The Biden administration announced Thursday it will ask the Supreme Court to intervene and “defend FDA’s scientific judgment,” likely signaling the Justice Department will request full restoration of the drug’s availability.
Republican candidates will ultimately have to bear the consequences of how a Republican-packed judicial bench approaches reproductive rights. And despite the conservative majority, the White House says it’s confident it can win if the high court takes up the abortion pill case.
Biden has already been facing pressure to do more to protect abortion access. In two separate executive orders, he directed agencies to find ways to expand the availability of the abortion pills now at the center of the latest legal fight and strengthen privacy protections for patients.
Much of the fight over abortion rights has landed at the state level. The administration is still seeking ways to counter advancing abortion restrictions, according to senior Biden officials. State legislators and attorney generals have been among those in close contact with the White House since last week’s ruling, the officials said.
“It’s a divisive issue,” Asa Hutchinson, a former Arkansas governor and GOP presidential candidate, told Bloomberg Television. “It’s a fight within the legislature and I think that’s where we’ll be in 2024.”
(Updates graph 12 to note SBA Pro-Life says it is open to a 15-week limit on abortions. Updates graphs 17 and 18 with news of Biden administration’s announcement that it would ask the Supreme Court to intervene in the abortion pill case.)
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