The most expensive race for a state Supreme Court seat in US history has given Democrats a chance to workshop ways to keep abortion rights front and center after some victories in the 2022 midterms.
(Bloomberg) — The most expensive race for a state Supreme Court seat in US history has given Democrats a chance to workshop ways to keep abortion rights front and center after some victories in the 2022 midterms.
Liberal Democrats hope to take control of the Wisconsin State Supreme Court for the first time in 15 years Tuesday with a win by Janet Protasiewicz, who is favored over Republican-backed Daniel Kelly, after the state Democratic Party and outside groups poured money into the race.
Democrats see a Protasiewicz win as key to holding on to the state in future elections after Donald Trump won in 2016 and President Joe Biden flipped it back in 2020. And, with abortions unavailable in the state since last summer, they said they believe the issue is key to getting her onto the bench.
Wisconsin has a 19th-century law on the books that entirely bans abortion, the legality of which will make its way to the state Supreme Court this summer. Getting Protasiewicz on the bench might be the only path to restoring abortion access to the level in place before the US Supreme Court overturned the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling last June.
While Democrats can win statewide, they are locked out of any hope to regain control of the state legislature or win more US House seats by what political scientists say are some of the most gerrymandered legislative and congressional maps in the country.
In ads and campaign events, Protasiewicz has made clear that she supports abortion rights, earning the endorsement of NARAL Pro-Choice America, Planned Parenthood Advocates of Wisconsin and EMILY’s List.
With more than $28 million in TV and radio ad buys, the race has already broken records, with the tracking site Medium Buying estimating that 60% of all ads were pro-Protasiewicz, beating those in favor of Kelly by a significant margin.
The two candidates also sparred over abortion in their only one-on-one debate in late March. After Protasiewicz said that she could say “with 100% certainty” that Kelly would allow the 1849 total abortion ban to stand when it comes before the court this summer, he responded angrily.
“This seems to be a pattern for you, Janet, just telling lies about me,” he said. “You don’t know what I’m thinking about that abortion ban. You have no idea.”
Kelly, a former state Supreme Court justice, has argued that Protasiewicz has been improperly vocal on the issue, noting judicial candidates are expected to refrain from saying how they would vote on specific cases.
For his part, he has said abortion should be decided by the state legislature, both chambers of which have been led by Republicans since 2011. Kelly has previously done work for Wisconsin Right to Life.
Anti-abortion groups are also active in the race, but they are relying on less-public efforts, reaching out to supporters through text messages, phone calls and direct mail rather than TV ads and rallies.
A November poll by Marquette University Law School found that 81% of registered Democrats were “very concerned” about abortion policy, identifying it as their top issue, compared to just 33% of Republicans.
Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski, who has been holding rallies for Protasiewicz across the state with Women Win Wisconsin, a group that backs reproductive rights, said abortion is all voters want to talk about with volunteers who knock on their doors.
“We’re even hearing this in small towns,” she said. “This is what they’re talking about in the coffee shops and the hardware stores.”
That follows a trend seen in other states last year, when anti-abortion referendums were defeated in Kansas, Kentucky and Montana, while abortion-rights measures passed in California, Michigan and Vermont.
Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said that Tuesday’s results will be a test of Democrats’ strategy.
“If abortion looks like a winning issue for Democrats, you’re going to see them use that going into next year,” he said.
Biden has signaled that he will campaign on the issue in an expected reelection bid and has pledged to sign a bill codifying abortion rights into law. GOP frontrunner Donald Trump appointed three of the justices who overturned Roe, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is backing a state effort to ban abortions after six weeks with exceptions for rape, incest or the life of the mother up to 15 weeks.
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.