Former Prime Minister Kiril Petkov won Bulgaria’s fifth election in two years, exit polls showed, but his razor-thin margin of victory threatens to extend a political stalemate undermining European Union unity over Russia’s war in Ukraine.
(Bloomberg) — Former Prime Minister Kiril Petkov won Bulgaria’s fifth election in two years, exit polls showed, but his razor-thin margin of victory threatens to extend a political stalemate undermining European Union unity over Russia’s war in Ukraine.
A bloc led by Petkov’s We Continue the Change party won 26.4%, according to an exit poll conducted by Alpha Research and published by the BNT public TV channel. His arch-rival, former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s Gerb party, won 25.5% in the parliamentary ballot. Three other parties also made it into parliament, according to the polls, which may not reflect exact results expected later in the evening or on Monday.
The country of 6.5 million, the EU’s poorest, is looking for a way out of years of political deadlock after a string of inconclusive votes gave no political force enough support to muster a ruling majority. If the deadlock continues, another snap ballot may happen later this year.
During the two years of short-lived governments, most power has been in the hands of interim cabinets appointed by Rumen Radev, a NATO-trained former fighter pilot and general who has taken pro-Moscow stances, including saying Crimea is Russian in an election campaign and labeling opponents who support arming Ukraine as warmongers.
“The big difficulties in forming a government remain unchanged,” Boryana Dimitrova, managing partner at Alpha Research, told BNT television. The “photo-finish” result shown by the exit polls mean an official tally is needed to determine how government-forming talks will progress, she said.
The crisis has deepened the Balkan country’s isolation in the EU, postponed its goal to enter the euro area next year, and delayed European Union recovery funding. The deadlock has also blocked the process for a 2023 budget bill, and central bank Governor Dimitar Radev (no relation to the president) remains in his post two years after his term expired because parties can’t agree on a replacement.
The war in Ukraine has only added to the chaos, as Bulgaria is part of NATO’s eastern flank less than 300 miles away from Crimea across the Black Sea.
If the exit polls are born out in final results, Petkov’s bloc will be first to receive the government-forming mandate by President Radev. Petkov, a Harvard-educated former business executive, has vowed to create a minority cabinet.
But the projected distribution of mandate in the 240-seat parliament shows he needs the support of either Borissov’s Gerb or at least two other parties, all of whom are unlikely partners.
Revival, a nationalist pro-Russian faction whose result was boosted by economic troubles including the highest inflation this century, won’t back a government they don’t lead, Tsoncho Ganev, the party’s vice president, told reporters.
Borissov, meanwhile, has said he’ll hold talks with all parties to seek broader support, with one option a potential grand coalition between Gerb and We Continue the Change that, if pursued, would probably be led by neither of the parties’ leaders.
If both Petkov and Borissov fail to win enough support to rule, Radev will have a third chance to pick a party to try to form a government before he will be obliged to schedule a new election.
“The political landscape remains deeply fragmented and challenges are becoming deeper,” said Capucine May, a political risk analyst at political consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.
(Updates with analyst comment in fourth paragraph, coalition options from sixth.)
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