Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin was running neck-and-neck with opposition center-right National Coalition in the early vote tally of the Nordic country’s close parliamentary elections.
(Bloomberg) — Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin was running neck-and-neck with opposition center-right National Coalition in the early vote tally of the Nordic country’s close parliamentary elections.
With 42.6% of votes counted, Marin’s Social Democrats were trailing the National Coalition, with 20.7% and 20.8% of votes, respectively, according to results published by YLE on Sunday night. There remained a chance that the far-right Finns Party, with 18.6%, could upend that outcome.
The winner — and the coalition they put together — will shape the trajectory of Finland’s public finances, the fate of its ambitious 2035 net zero goal and prospects to offset population aging with immigration into the cold, northernly nation.
A victory for Marin would vindicate her handling of both an unprecedented pandemic and the fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine, which led to Finland’s bid to join NATO. She has garnered international fame as head of a five-party cabinet led solely by women, with the 37-year-old premier’s millennial personal lifestyle drawing in young voters.
Her triumph would also show many voters are prepared to shrug off the country’s continued borrowing, after 15 years of budgets in the deficit, as Marin’s Social Democrats reject spending reductions.
On the other hand, should the center-right National Coalition finish first, that would mirror the shift in neighboring Sweden where a more inward-looking and fiscally conservative government, led by the Moderate Party, took power from the Social Democrats last year.
Marin’s Social Democrats have sought to stay in power with pledges to raise taxes and foster growth — means that the opposition National Coalition, led by Petteri Orpo, say are mutually exclusive. The center-right group campaigned instead on the platform of lower taxes and reduced spending with a goal of balancing the books sooner. Opposition ultra-nationalist Finns Party of Riikka Purra agrees on fiscal prudence, but rejects immigration and seeks to tone down climate ambitions.
What those clashing views mean for post-election coalition building is shrouded in mystery, complicating the choice for 4.3 million eligible voters in Finland, where set political blocs don’t exist.
As a rule, the party with the most seats in parliament gets the first attempt to form a ruling coalition — and cabinets can even be formed by parties from opposite sides of the political spectrum if they manage to agree on a joint policy program. The talks can kick off after the election of a parliament speaker April 12 and are set to take weeks, if not months.
Among the few red lines disclosed ahead of the vote, many parties refuse to work with the nationalists, with Orpo’s National Coalition an exception. The Center Party of Finance Minister Annika Saarikko has ruled out extending the current coalition with Marin’s party for another term.
Finland’s upcoming membership in NATO is among the few issues that’s widely backed across the political spectrum.
–With assistance from Rob Dawson and Philip Tabuas.
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