Ukraine Latest: Wagner’s Bakhmut Claim; Nobel Winner Sentenced

Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, released a video saying that his units “have practically surrounded Bakhmut,” the eastern Ukraine city that’s been the scene of brutal fighting for months.

(Bloomberg) — Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, released a video saying that his units “have practically surrounded Bakhmut,” the eastern Ukraine city that’s been the scene of brutal fighting for months.  

President Vladimir Putin will hold a regular meeting of the Russian Security Council on Friday, a day after scrapping a trip to southern Russia after an attack in a village near the border with Ukraine. 

The Nobel Peace Prize-winning human rights activist, Ales Bialiatski, was sentenced to a decade in a penal colony as Belarus continues to crack down on dissent. 

Key Developments

  • Scholz Braced for Heat From Biden Over Ammunition
  • Blinken Presses Lavrov on Ukraine in Unexpected Chat at G-20 
  • China Joins Russia in Refusing to Agree to G-20 Statement on War
  • Abramovich’s Billionaire Ally Takes On UK in Sanctions Challenge

(All times CET)

OECD Chief: Russia Will ‘Ultimately’ Pay Reparations  (12:10 p.m.) 

OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann tells Bloomberg TV that Russia will ultimately have to pay reparations “for the harm and the damage they have done” to Ukraine. 

Belarus Sentences Nobel Peace Prize Winner to 10 Years (11:35 a.m.)

Ales Bialiatski, 60, who won the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize while in a Belarusian prison, was sentenced to 10 years as his country’s authoritarian government continues to crack down on opponents.  

Two other members of the Bialiatski-led Viasna Human Rights center were sentenced to nine and seven years each, according to state-owned news agency Belta.  

All were convicted on charges of financing anti-government protests and “smuggling cash” in an organized group. They have denied wrongdoing.

Read more: Belarus Court Sentences Nobel Peace Prize Laureate to 10 Years

Wagner Chief Says Bakhmut Almost Surrounded by Russian Forces (10 a.m.)

Bakhmut in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, site of intense fighting since the summer, is now “practically surrounded,” Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Russia’s Wagner group, said in a video released on Friday. 

Addressing Ukraine’s president, Prigozhin said “the pincers are closing” around Kyiv’s troops still in the area, with only one road out of the city still open. Controlling Bakhmut is thought to be a stepping stone for Russian forces to advance further west and north. 

Videos circulating on social media claimed to show Ukrainian forces blowing up bridges in Bakhmut. There’s been no comment from Ukraine’s military so far. On Wednesday, Volodymyr Zelenskiy said fighting in Bakhmut was at its “most difficult.” 

Russia Cutting Currency Sales With Energy Revenues Steady (10:32 a.m.)

Russia will lower the amount of foreign currency it plans to sell through early April as energy revenues show signs of stabilizing, despite restrictions imposed over its invasion of Ukraine.

The Finance Ministry said Friday it will sell 119.8 billion rubles ($1.6 billion) during the March. 7-April 6 period under a budgetary mechanism aimed at insulating the economy from the ups and downs in oil prices. The amount is over 40% less than in the previous month.

Ukraine Spring Planting Underway (9:40 am.) 

Ukraine’s farmers have started planting spring crops in the south despite continued fighting, drought, and uncertainty over the status of the deal — brokered last summer by the UN and Turkey — that allows the war-torn nation to export grains through the Black Sea. The agreement is up for renewal this month. 

Farmers have planted 3,500 hectares (8,650 acres) in the Odesa region including 1,500 hectares of spring barley, the agriculture ministry said. 

Russia is expected to attempt to extract concessions on its own agricultural exports before agreeing to extend the Black Sea grain deal. 

Moscow Struggling to Produce High-Tech Systems at Scale, UK Says (7 a.m)

Russian defense companies continue to showcase their products at international arms fairs, but those advanced systems aren’t making their way to the battlefield, likely because of the impact of sanctions, the UK defence ministry said. 

In a Twitter thread, the UK said Russia recently showed the Arena-E active protection system at such an event, saying that it “defeats the threats that are most dangerous for armored vehicles.”

“There has been no evidence of Arena-E systems being installed on Russia’s own vehicles in Ukraine, where it has lost over 5,000 armored vehicles,” the UK said. 

Scholz Braced for Heat From Biden Over Ammunition (6 a.m.)

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz may be grilled by President Joe Biden over the struggle to produce enough ammunition for Ukraine’s front lines when the leaders meet at the White House on Friday. 

While the US and Germany agreed to send battle tanks and Patriot missiles to Ukraine earlier this year, Kyiv’s forces are still waiting on much of that equipment and face a shortage of basic artillery shells. 

Biden and Scholz are likely to discuss ways to cooperate more on stepping up manufacturing. It will be 64-year-old Scholz’s second visit to the White House since taking office in 2021. He’s expected to have an hour-long meeting in the Oval Office.  

Zelenskiy Spoke With Brazil’s Lula (3 a.m.)

Ukraine’s president spoke on Thursday with his Brazilian counterpart Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who’s recently raised his hand as a potential broker for talks to end the war. On Twitter, Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the pair “discussed diplomatic efforts to bring peace back to Ukraine and the world.”

Lula earlier said he “reaffirmed Brazil’s desire…to participate in any initiative related to building peace and dialogue.”

China Joins Russia in Refusing to Agree to G-20 Statement on War (2:44 a.m.)

China and Russia refused to join other G-20 nations in a statement in which most members condemned Putin’s war in Ukraine, showing divisions remain entrenched on how to end a conflict that has roiled the global economy. 

“Given the state of polarization around Ukraine, a consensus could not be reached,” said India’s top diplomat Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. “There are occasions when you don’t have an agreement among G-20 countries.”

US to Provide Ukraine More Military Aid, With Emphasis on Ammunition (9:24 p.m.)

The US will announce a fresh round of military aid to Ukraine on Friday, when President Joe Biden will receive a visit at the White House from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that the new US package will include “mostly ammunitions and munitions that the Ukrainians will need for the systems they already have.” Biden and Scholz will discuss ongoing aid to Ukraine, he said.

Russia Says Lavrov ‘Disregarded Blinken’ at G-20 (8:01 p.m.)

Lavrov “disregarded in his usual manner” what Blinken told him about US views on current crises during a short encounter on the sidelines of G-20 foreign ministers conference, according to Lavrov’s spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.

“It doesn’t deserve our attention. There was nothing interesting,” she said in comments on Russian state television. Blinken approached Lavrov, and “we didn’t push him away,” she said.

Russian Support for Army’s Ukraine Actions Increases, Poll Finds (7 p.m.)

A new poll by the independent Levada Center found 77% of Russians surveyed support the Russian army’s actions in Ukraine, up by 6 percentage points from December. People older than 55, who are exempt from the military mobilization, are much more pro-war than young people ages 18 to 24.

But the poll also suggests a majority of Russians wish for the war to end: 43% favored continued military operations in Ukraine while 50% said Moscow should begin peace negotiations. The share of those who want the war to continue rose by 3 percentage points since December, according to the pollster.

Blinken Presses Lavrov on Ukraine in Unexpected Chat (5:44 p.m.)

During a stop in Tashkent on Wednesday, Blinken said he had “no plans” to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the G-20 gathering. Yet Russia’s foreign ministry said it was Blinken who sought out Thursday’s conversation, which it said didn’t qualify as “talks or a meeting,” according to Interfax.

Blinken didn’t respond to a question during his news conference about why he sought the meeting with Lavrov, and State Department spokespeople declined to comment on the matter.  

(See RSAN on the Bloomberg Terminal for the Russian Sanctions Dashboard.) 

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