Walking away from a deal would be political disaster for the UK prime minister. Pressing ahead could be just as dangerous.
(Bloomberg) —
Rishi Sunak’s allies have told Conservative rebels that if they don’t back his imminent deal on Brexit, there’s no prospect of a fix for a cross-channel immigration crisis that’s seen as crucial to the party’s electoral fortunes.
The UK prime minister is set to hold talks on Saturday and Sunday with Cabinet ministers, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, as he seeks to resolve an impasse over the controversial Northern Ireland Protocol that governs the region’s post-Brexit trade, people familiar with the matter said.
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In recent days, Sunak and his advisers have been stewing over whether to proceed with an agreement with the European Union, despite potential objections from the DUP and Tory Brexiteers that it still leaves too much power with the EU. Now, Downing Street is minded to announce a deal with Brussels either early next week or even as soon as this weekend, according to multiple people directly involved in its plan.
It’s a pivotal moment for Sunak that one cabinet minister described as a catch-22 that could make-or-break his four-month-old administration.
The premier is seeking to end a standoff with the EU, that’s poisoned relations with Britain’s biggest trading partner since it left the bloc three years ago. But in doing so, he’s likely to face criticism from unionists and Tory Brexiteers that the new deal would maintain EU law and a role for the European Court of Justice in Northern Ireland, something the rebels say threatens the region’s place in the UK.
Week From Hell
But Sunak is determined to settle the issue. Former Tory premiers David Cameron, Theresa May and Boris Johnson all faced their own Brexit weeks from hell, and the coming week is Sunak’s turn, a Conservative MP said.
If he walks away now or tries to delay, it would be an almighty climbdown, the minister said. Domestically, Sunak’s political authority in the Conservative Party would be destroyed, the minister added, with backbenchers then emboldened to mount further rebellions on tax cuts ahead of the March Budget.
Moreover, EU relations would hit rock bottom and there would be no chance of agreeing a separate deal with French President Emmanuel Macron to prevent migrants crossing the English Channel, they said. Sunak has made tackling that problem one of his five key pledges to voters after some 45,000 made the journey last year.
Bottling it is not an option, another ally of Sunak agreed.
The flipside is that if he signs off on the deal, he is likely to face an immediate rebellion from the DUP and Brexit hardliners. Government whips think about 20 Tory MPs would oppose the deal in a House of Commons vote. The rebels say their numbers could rise above 40. Sunak has a working majority of 67, meaning he risks having to pass it with Labour votes — which may be seen as politically unconscionable.
Parliamentary Vote
Some in government privately say they do not think Sunak should put it to a vote — he is not required to — and instead just have a debate in the Commons. However, the optics of such an incendiary move would only enrage the rebels further, an official warned.
The framework for a deal has been ready for weeks, despite repeated denials from No. 10, multiple people familiar said. Senior officials had wanted to announce an agreement last Tuesday, to be followed by a quick vote in the Commons.
But it didn’t go to plan. As details of what had been negotiated leaked, the strength of opposition from the DUP and Brexiteers surprised some in Downing Street, a person familiar with the matter said. Out of an abundance of caution, Tuesday’s announcement was shelved as ministers and officials tried to calm potential rebels.
The change of plan led EU officials to raise concerns Sunak was getting cold feet, and the UK side had to reassure them he wasn’t, the person said. Yet the delay does not appear to have helped Sunak’s position.
Unionist View
The ensuing outreach to the DUP and Brexiteer Tories in the European Research Group was very tough, according to several people involved. A person familiar with DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson’s thinking said he was concerned Sunak wouldn’t show him the legal text of the prospective deal, saying it suggested he had something to hide. Documents relating to the technical-level deal have been kept at a high-level security classification in Whitehall, limiting who can see them to a tight circle.
In following days, wary DUP MPs announced new red lines over the role of the ECJ, EU law governing Northern Irish goods, and legal changes to the existing Protocol text.
That left some in government furious at what they saw as moving the goalposts, because the ultimatums were almost impossible to meet and had not appeared explicitly in the DUP’s seven tests for any deal. A person close to the negotiations said it appeared less likely the unionists would restore power-sharing institutions in Northern Ireland — which they’ve blocked for more than a year.
There is speculation too that Northern Ireland minister Steve Baker, a former ERG chair, is upset at being kept out of the loop throughout the negotiations. He and some other junior ministers and ministerial aides are on resignation watch, an official said.
Sunak’s Gamble
Despite the setbacks, Sunak has been determined to press on, insiders said. One said he was crash-landing the plane.
In an ideal world, the DUP and ERG would back a deal or at least not oppose it in significant numbers, and power-sharing in Northern Ireland would be restored, the person said. But the government was willing to face down its critics even if it means a Tory rebellion and ongoing political turmoil in the region, they added.
Another member of the government said there was a difficult truth that could not be said publicly: Downing Street had chosen to prioritize a compromise that could deliver better relations with the EU and a deal on small boats, over the concerns of Northern Irish unionists and Brexit purists.
The calculation is simple but cynical, they said: English voters care more about immigration than Northern Ireland.
It’s an argument that has been made subtly by government figures to Tory MPs in recent days. Whether it is enough to convince backbench Brexiteers not to turn a Northern Ireland deal into an existential issue for Sunak’s premiership remains to be seen.
–With assistance from Alberto Nardelli and Leonora Campbell.
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