Nearly every opinion poll before Saturday’s presidential election in Nigeria put Peter Obi far out in front — making him the first third-party candidate with a real shot at the top job in Africa’s biggest democracy.
(Bloomberg) —
Nearly every opinion poll before Saturday’s presidential election in Nigeria put Peter Obi far out in front — making him the first third-party candidate with a real shot at the top job in Africa’s biggest democracy.
The two major parties scoff, as do many observers. Despite the former Anambra state governor’s passionate young following — known as “Obidients” — Nigeria’s complex electoral math and the sheer cost of mounting a credible national campaign means he may come up short.
Read: Outsider Candidate Leads in Opinion Poll for Nigerian President
To win in the first round, a candidate needs to secure a simple majority of all votes cast and at least a quarter of the votes in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states and the capital, Abuja. The problem for Obi is that his support is concentrated in the south, which has far lower turnout than the more populous north.
The other challenge is organizational. Nigerian elections require people in every state and municipality to get people out to vote and, often, pay them to do it.
The nation’s electoral commission has vowed to fight vote buying, but it’s still a common practice, and opponents argue that Obi’s Labour Party lacks both the money and the ground game to win it all.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s ruling All Progressives Congress and Atiku Abubakar’s Peoples Democratic Party have both in spades — and they’re both expecting to prove the polls wrong.
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