Ukraine Latest: Russian-Baltics Diplomatic Ties Slide to New Low

Ties between Russia and the three Baltic nations on the northeast border of the European Union and NATO reached a new low as tit-for-tat expulsions and staff cuts were set to leave no ambassador-level diplomats between the nations.

(Bloomberg) — Ties between Russia and the three Baltic nations on the northeast border of the European Union and NATO reached a new low as tit-for-tat expulsions and staff cuts were set to leave no ambassador-level diplomats between the nations. 

Poland will file a request for German approval to send its Leopard tanks to Ukraine, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said, adding that it was a formality “because we will transfer the tanks without the nod.” 

Foreign ministers of the European Union held talks in Brussels, with Germany facing pressure from several countries on tank deliveries. The EU ministers are expected to approve another 500 million euros ($545 million) in funding for weapons sent to Ukraine. 

(See RSAN on the Bloomberg Terminal for the Russian Sanctions Dashboard.)  

Key Developments

  • Baltic Relations With Moscow Deteriorate in Diplomatic Standoff
  • Latvia Slams Berlin Over Leopard Tanks Indecision for Ukraine
  • Germany and France Outline a New Europe That’s Under Threat
  • How Europe Needs Freight Trains to Cross Russia From China
  • Germany Still Years Away From Replacing Russian Gas Capacity

On the Ground

Russian forces continued their offensive around Bakhmut, conducted unsuccessful assaults on the Lyman, Avdiyivka and Zaporizhzhia axes, and are on the defensive in other areas, Ukraine’s General Staff said on Facebook. It said Russian troops launched four missile and five air strikes on Ukraine over the past day and carried out more than 40 salvos from multiple rocket launchers, while the Ukrainian military repelled attacks near 11 settlements in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions. One person was killed by Russian shelling in the Kherson region.

(All times CET) 

EU to Prolong Trade Liberalisation With Ukraine (5:32 p.m.)

The EU is leaning toward prolonging full trade liberalisation with Ukraine to support its economy in spite of concerns raised by industries. The bloc is “likely to expand those measures because they are providing tangible economic support to Ukraine” in a difficult moment, European Commission vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis said.

Last June, the EU adopted a temporary full trade liberalization with Ukraine and the suspension of trade defence measures for one year as part of its response to the Russia’s invasion of the country. Member states had noted the increased volume of some imports including poultry and eggs.

Latvia Says Next Two Months Are Critical For Ukraine (3:41 p.m.)

The next two months will be critical for Ukraine as Russia builds up forces and equipment near the border for an offensive, Latvian Defense Minister Inara Murniece told journalists.

Ukraine needs weapons now to defend itself, she said. Latvia, which has given weaons to Ukraine, is planning to rebuild its arsenal by buying air defense systems, Himars rocket launchers and a coastal defense system, Murniece said. Thta way Latvia can strengthen its defenses over the next five years as Russia may be able to rebuild its forces.

Ukrainians Show Record Support of Joining NATO (3:08 p.m.)

Ukrainians support joining both NATO and EU by record amounts — 86% and 87% respectively — according to a survey from the Rating Group agency. 

Latvia to Reduce Diplomatic Ties With Russia (2:04 p.m.)

Latvia will pull its ambassador to Russia in response to Moscow’s decision on Monday to expel Estonia’s top envoy, completing a diplomatic downgrade across the Baltics in response to the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. 

Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics said his country will recall its ambassador by Feb. 24 due to the “ongoing brutal Russian aggression against Ukraine” and “in solidarity with Estonia.” 

Earlier this month, Estonia ordered the Russian embassy to reduce its staff by almost half to 23 diplomats, bringing the number in line with its own team in Moscow. Fellow Baltic state Lithuania recalled its ambassador from Russia and downgraded its diplomatic relations in April.

EU Pushes Ahead on Reconstruction Donor Plan (1:34 p.m.)

The EU is planning to confirm its intention to play a “leading role” in the reconstruction of Ukraine through a donor coordination platform it plans to run with the Group of Seven and other partners, according to the text of a joint statement planned for an EU-Ukraine summit on Feb. 3.

Donors are setting up a steering committee with a meeting as early as this month, people said. A secretariat of the steering committee would be hosted in the EU’s executive arm in Brussels, with a small presence in Kyiv to be expanded in the future.

Any Exceptions in Sanctions on Russia Are “Inadmissible,” Kuleba Says (12:30 p.m.)

The next EU sanctions package should be adopted as soon as possible, have no exceptions or relaxations and include a wide range of powerful restrictions on the missile and drone industry as well as energy, banking, media and telecommunications, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in a video linkup with EU counterparts Monday. 

Russia tries to bypass restrictions, and all such attempts should meet with “strong resistance,” Kuleba said according to a statement on his ministry website.

Russians Heavily Mine Captured Territories, Kyiv Says (11:58 a.m.)

Over 800,000 hectares of Southern Kherson and Mykolayiv regions, occupied by Russian troops from the start of the full-scale invasion and liberated by the Ukrainian army last fall, are heavily mined, the Ukrainian military media center said citing operational group “Tavria” commander Oleksandr Tarnavskiy. 

“After liberating our territories, we immediately begin clearing them from explosives,” Tarnavskiy said, adding that Ukrainian sappers and engineers risk their lives every day “to make the liberated territories safe again.”

Ukraine Needs Several Hundred Tanks, Kyiv Says (11:05 a.m.)

Ukraine needs not 10-20 tanks, but several hundreds, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak said on Telegram. 

Yermak said the priority is to restore the borders of 1991 and “punish the enemy.” He added: “This is not only a Ukrainian front, it is a front of civilization against backwardness and barbarism.” Earlier, Ukrainian officials said that the 1991 borders include the territories occupied by Russia since 2014 – the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, and Crimea.

Poland Calls on Germany to Transfer Leopard Tanks to Ukraine (10:22 a.m.)

Poland has called on Germany to transfer its Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine, Premier Mateusz Morawiecki said Monday.

Warsaw is piling pressure on the German government to ship its tanks to Ukraine, according to the prime minister, and is also building an alliance of countries that will hand over their own tanks to Ukraine without German approval.

“We will file a request for German approval but it is a secondary issue, because we will transfer the tanks without the nod,” Morawiecki told reporters.

Estonia, Lithuania press for More Weapons for Ukraine (10:20 a.m.)

Estonia and Lithuania’s foreign ministers urged allies to send Ukraine all the weaponry they could, including main battle tanks, both to help the country defend itself from Russia ahead of another possible large-scale offensive and to claim territory back.

Speaking to reporters ahead of a meeting of EU foreign affairs chiefs in Brussels, Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu said he hoped there wouldn’t be “ambivalency, purgatory” over whether Germany sends its Leopard 2 tanks, adding that allies “need to give Ukrainians a shield, but also a sword to liberate territory.”

Asked if he was frustrated by Germany’s approach on tanks, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said: “I wish I would not have to wait one more day for tanks to be delivered.” He proposed sanctioning Russia’s nuclear company Rosatom and called for more sanctions on Belarus to close the existing loopholes that allow goods to reach Russia via the country.

Latvia Raps Germany Over Leopard Talks Indecision (9:45 a.m.)

Latvia’s top envoy criticized Germany over its indecision on whether to send Ukraine the Leopard 2 tanks, saying there are no longer any “good arguments” not to give Kyiv the heavier weapons it demands. 

The three Baltic nations — Latvia, along with Estonia and Lithuania — will reiterate calls for Germany to send the tanks when the bloc’s foreign affairs chiefs gather in Brussels on Monday, after the countries issued a joint statement over the weekend. 

“At this point there are no good arguments saying why battle tanks, why air defense systems can’t be provided,” Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics told reporters ahead of the meeting.

EU to Begin Work on More Russia Sanctions (9:15 a.m.)

The EU is eyeing a 10th package of sanctions targeting Russia’s war in Ukraine one year after Moscow’s invasion next month, according to people familiar with the matter.

Proposals for the new measures have yet to be circulated but the sanctions could include expanding restrictions on Russia’s drone sector and dual-use goods used by Russia’s military industrial complex, the people said. A group of nations, including Poland and the Baltic countries, will be pushing for a strong package, the people added.

The EU is also working on new measures targeting Belarus for its role in providing ongoing support to Russia, the people said.

Zelenskiy Announces ‘Powerful’ Steps Following Dismissal of Deputy Minister (8:40 a.m.)

Decisions to restore fair governance “have already been prepared,” Zelenskiy said in his daily video statement Sunday night. The decisions concern officials involved in procurement in the energy sector and for the military, Zelenskiy said without elaborating. 

The Ukrainian government on Sunday dismissed deputy minister of communities, development and infrastructure, Vasyl Lozynskyi, who is suspected of abuse of office and bribery.

EU Foreign Ministers to Discuss Tank Deliveries to Ukraine (8:38 a.m.)

EU foreign ministers will discuss tank deliveries to Ukraine in Brussels, the bloc’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told reporters ahead of Monday’s meeting.

“From my personal opinion, these kind of arms should be provided to the Ukrainian army but it’s a member state decision and we’re here to discuss about it,” Borrell said. The EU foreign policy chief added he hoped the bloc would reach political consensus on a new tranche of 500 million euros in funding for weapons sent to Ukraine.

Russia Says No Grounds Yet For Arms Treaty Talks With US (8 a.m.)

Russia said it sees no grounds yet for holding a fresh round of talks under the New START treaty postponed since November. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the atmosphere isn’t conducive to these negotiations, Interfax reported.

The meeting originally planned in Cairo would have marked the first such discussions since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February. Resuming suspended inspections of US and Russian nuclear weapons sites was to have been on the agenda.

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com

©2023 Bloomberg L.P.