Oil swung between gains and losses in the first session of the year as traders digested mixed signals on demand from China, the world’s largest crude importer, and a rally in the dollar.
(Bloomberg) — Oil swung between gains and losses in the first session of the year as traders digested mixed signals on demand from China, the world’s largest crude importer, and a rally in the dollar.
West Texas Intermediate traded near $80 a barrel, while Brent was little changed. The rising dollar makes commodities priced in the currency less attractive.
In China, some measures of mobility in key urban areas have picked up, a sign that a so-called exit wave of Covid infections may have peaked. That followed official data showing the economy ended the year in a major slump, and President Xi Jinping said that tough challenges remain.
There are some signs traders have grown more optimistic on the market in recent days. Last week, money managers boosted net-bullish bets on the global Brent benchmark by the most since July 2021.
As 2023 gets under way, investors are tracking Russia’s reaction to sanctions on its energy exports, the odds the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies may cut supply again, and the fallout in China from its swift pivot away from Covid Zero. On Tuesday WTI briefly traded above its 50-day moving average, a possible technical catalyst for further buying.
“The oil market is off to a fairly good start to the year buoyed by the faster reopening of China that should support demand amid global recession fears,” said Jens Pedersen a senior analyst at Danske Bank. “The dollar jumped on the first real trading day of the year, which should limit a further rise in oil prices.”
Hedge fund trader Pierre Andurand has been among those forecasting a surge in oil demand if the world fully emerges from Covid restrictions. Consumption has been lagging long-term trends and may rise by 3 million to 4 million barrels a day in 2023, he said last week.
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