India’s benchmark 10-year bond yield may drop by almost 100 basis points by the third quarter of next year, boosted by foreign inflows as the nation’s sovereign debt are included in a key global gauge, according to Societe Generale SA.
(Bloomberg) — India’s benchmark 10-year bond yield may drop by almost 100 basis points by the third quarter of next year, boosted by foreign inflows as the nation’s sovereign debt are included in a key global gauge, according to Societe Generale SA.
The yield may fall to 6.30% in the September quarter of 2024, a level last seen in Nov. 2021, helped by inflows of as much as $25 billion after inclusion of local bonds into JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s emerging market index, SocGen analysts wrote in a note. The yield may drop to 6.60% by end of June, compared with 7.22% on Tuesday.
“All else being equal, this would be significantly bullish for Indian bond yields,” analysts including Kunal Kundu wrote in a note Tuesday. “The additional source of financing for the current account and fiscal deficits through foreign inflows is positive for the currency and bond yields,” they said.
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