Inflation Will Squeeze Back-to-School Spending, Deloitte Says

Parents are expected to trim their back-to-school spending by 10% per child this year, the first decline in nearly a decade, as inflation catches up with the second-biggest shopping season, according to data from market research firm Deloitte.

(Bloomberg) — Parents are expected to trim their back-to-school spending by 10% per child this year, the first decline in nearly a decade, as inflation catches up with the second-biggest shopping season, according to data from market research firm Deloitte. 

Consumers are focusing on school supplies and other necessities, with the average spend for each child expected to be $597, down from $661 in 2022, the firm said. Parents are willing to splurge on items such as apparel and technology when product quality is better or under other special conditions, the data found.

Deloitte conducted an online poll of more than a thousand parents nationwide with kids in grades K—12 this school year during the last week of May 2023. 

The overall back-to-school market is expected to be $31.2 billion, a 9% year-over-year decline. That would still exceed the pre-pandemic market of $27.7 billion in 2019.

With inflation tightening purse strings, consumers are prioritizing retailers with competitive prices: 80% expressed a preference for mass merchants. 

Many parents plan to spend most of their school-supply budgets in July, according to the data. This timing coincides with Amazon.com Inc.’s annual Prime Day shopping event, taking place this week, and similar deal days at competitors such as Walmart Inc. and Target Corp. 

“Part of the reason we’re seeing more parent preference for in-store versus online is they believe that they’re going to get a better price point,” said Brian McCarthy, a principal at Deloitte who specializes in retail. 

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