Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s last attempt to visit China was derailed by an alleged Chinese spy balloon. Now he’s ready to try again, departing Friday for a two-day trip aimed at stabilizing ties with the world’s second-largest economy and reducing the risk that miscommunication ignites conflict between the two superpowers.
(Bloomberg) — Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s last attempt to visit China was derailed by an alleged Chinese spy balloon. Now he’s ready to try again, departing Friday for a two-day trip aimed at stabilizing ties with the world’s second-largest economy and reducing the risk that miscommunication ignites conflict between the two superpowers.
US-China relations went into a tailspin after the balloon was spotted earlier this year over the western United States, prompting President Joe Biden to order it shot down. A lot is now riding on Blinken’s rescheduled visit to meet with high-ranking Chinese officials, possibly including President Xi Jinping.
As the highest-ranking US official to visit China in five years, Blinken is leading an effort by Biden to reset ties plagued by challenges: trade and intellectual-property disputes, human rights concerns, Taiwan’s security, China’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine and US limits on advanced technology.
Competition will continue to be the defining theme of the relationship, with the spy balloon drama from Blinken’s last attempt echoing ahead of his departure. This time, the accusation of a Chinese espionage base in Cuba, which Beijing denies, is keeping both sides defensive.
Here are five things to watch during the visit:
1. China’s Reception
A meeting with Xi is possible and would be significant.
Blinken’s reception in Beijing will offer hints at how willing China is to engage at the highest levels. Biden, for instance, has been waiting for a call with Xi that’s been in the works since early May.
With Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and other cabinet officials intending to make trips, how Blinken is greeted, treated and written about in state media will say a lot about the way forward.
2. Low Expectations
Washington is already trying to lower expectations. “We need to be realistic,” Kurt Campbell, the White House’s top Asia official, said Wednesday when previewing the trip. “We’re not going to Beijing with the intent of having some sort of breakthrough or transformation in the way that we deal with one another.”
Chinese media has been relatively muted ahead of the trip, contrasting with more positive signals in February.
Staying quiet on the visit could be one way of showing dissatisfaction with the US, according to Shi Yinhong, professor of international relations at Beijing’s Renmin University, who sees little room for any breakthroughs.
“There are more than a dozen major issues — such as Ukraine, Taiwan, South China Sea — that the US and China are at odds on, and have little chance of resolving in the near future,” he said.
3. Stabilizing Ties
That means Blinken’s overarching goal will be trying to steady a relationship that has huge consequences for the world economy and geopolitics. His planned trip in February would have benefited from the afterglow of the first in-person meeting as leaders between Biden and President Xi Jinping in late 2022.
Sine then relations have soured over a series of spats and accusations. More worryingly, there have been two recent dangerous military interactions, one over the South China Sea and another in the Taiwan Strait.
“Right now, the overall relationship is not moving in one direction or another — it zigs and zags on a weekly basis,” said Ryan Hass, a former director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia at the US National Security Council. “If there is an incident that leads to loss of life — Heaven forbid — then I think all bets are off.”
4. Improving Communications
Things are so rocky that Blinken’s first step toward that stability will be just restoring lines of communication, particularly over military matters. The world’s two most powerful nations have very few direct ways of talking, and lack a dedicated military-to-military line to deescalate incidents. China’s Defense Minister Li Shangfu recently rejected a request to meet Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
Making it riskier for the US to operate around China is one of Beijing’s strategic goals, according to Hass, so it’s unclear when exactly China will agree to restart military communications. But there are other less sensitive areas where progress might be possible on this trip, including macroeconomic stability and climate change.
5. Taiwan & Tech
Taiwan is the most sensitive, and potentially explosive, area of US-China relations — what Beijing refers to as a “core concern.” Blinken is going to drive home the message that the Biden administration isn’t trying to upset the status quo. But he’s also going to have to condemn Chinese economic coercion and military pressure on Taiwan, which has increased in recent years. There won’t be any breakthrough on the fundamentals, but the tone will be telling.
Both sides will also likely talk past each other on US efforts to stymie Beijing’s technology ambitions, especially limits on selling China equipment to make advanced semiconductors.
–With assistance from Peter Martin, Lucille Liu and Jenni Marsh.
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