The support rate for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s cabinet rose to more than 50% in a Nikkei newspaper poll for the first time in eight months, adding fuel to speculation he could call an early general election.
(Bloomberg) — The support rate for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s cabinet rose to more than 50% in a Nikkei newspaper poll for the first time in eight months, adding fuel to speculation he could call an early general election.
Some 52% of respondents to the Nikkei poll released late Sunday said they supported Kishida, up four percentage points on the previous month. Two other surveys also showed increases in approval for the premier, who is set to host the Group of Seven summit in his hometown of Hiroshima later this month.
While the premier need not hold a general election until 2025, renewing his mandate might help him keep control of his ruling Liberal Democratic Party as he heads into divisive debates over how to fund his policy pledges on defense and support for families.
A separate poll by Kyodo News put his support at 46.6%, up 8.5 points on the previous month, while a third survey by JNN showed his approval rating had risen by 2.9 percentage points to 47.2%.
Media have speculated Kishida could dissolve parliament for an election if the May 19-21 summit goes smoothly and gives him another fillip in the polls. The LDP won four of five seats in by-elections late last month, although gains for the opposition Japan Innovation Party in local elections tempered the victory.
“This may be the peak,” said Mieko Nakabayashi, a professor of politics at Waseda University in Tokyo, adding Kishida may not have another good chance to call an election ahead of the LDP’s leadership contest in September 2024.
With the support rate for major opposition parties relatively weak, Kishida’s ruling coalition would be likely to keep its majority in parliament if there was an early election.
The timing of the vote could also play into central bank policy, as the Bank of Japan may come under pressure not to make any changes that could cause ructions in the markets during any campaign period.
The bank at a meeting last week scrapped its guidance on future interest rate levels while keeping its main stimulus measures unchanged, as Governor Kazuo Ueda prepared the ground for taking a more flexible stance on policy.
Kishida has pledged to increase defense spending by 60% over the next five years and double outlays on children and families in a bid to tackle a “national crisis” of an aging and declining population that threatens economic prospects. He has yet to spell out details on how these measures can be funded in the mid to long-term.
Support for Kishida slumped last year over his handling of a scandal involving his party’s ties to a fringe religion formerly known as the Unification Church. His March visit to Ukraine and progress toward a rapprochement in a long-running feud with South Korea helped turn the trend around.
(Updates with analyst comment in sixth paragraph.)
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