Oil Swings With Macro Markets While Awaiting Supply Challenges

Oil was little changed in a low-volume session as the US dollar’s rally duels with challenges to supply in the wake of planned output cuts by OPEC and its allies.

(Bloomberg) — Oil was little changed in a low-volume session as the US dollar’s rally duels with challenges to supply in the wake of planned output cuts by OPEC and its allies.

Crude has swung in a volatile session due to the European public holiday. Prices have rallied roughly 20% rally in the last three weeks as OPEC+’s surprise decision reignited bullish bets on prices. Yet some demand indicators are showing signs of weakness, and traders will get valuable insights this week from monthly outlooks by OPEC and the International Energy Agency as well as US inflation data and Federal Reserve minutes.

“The US dollar rally is triggering a slight correction in crude,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial Securities. “Inflation still hanging around should cause further rates hikes by the Fed, which is bullish to the US dollar and a negative near term to crude.”

Separately, Turkey wants to negotiate payments it owes Iraq before a pipeline that exports 400,000 barrels a day is reopened, according to Turkish officials familiar with the situation. 

Russia’s Energy Ministry, meanwhile, said that the nation reduced its oil output by about 700,000 barrels a day last month, according to a person familiar with the data. Nevertheless, that figure is inconsistent with indicators on the nation’s March seaborne exports and supplies to domestic refineries.

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–With assistance from Sri Taylor.

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