Ukraine’s credit score was cut on Friday by S&P Global Ratings after the government unveiled a plan to restructure its external debt before mid-2024. The war-torn nation was lowered to CCC from CCC+, with a negative outlook.
(Bloomberg) — Ukraine’s credit score was cut on Friday by S&P Global Ratings after the government unveiled a plan to restructure its external debt before mid-2024. The war-torn nation was lowered to CCC from CCC+, with a negative outlook.
The Pentagon is investigating a leak of classified war documents detailing US and NATO plans for building up the Ukrainian military ahead of a planned offensive against Russia were posted this week on social media channels, the New York Times reported. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told a European news outlet that Beijing is “trying to have it both ways” by advancing a cease-fire proposal while also supporting Vladimir Putin.
Russia’s foreign minister warned that Moscow may quit the UN-brokered Ukraine grain export deal if “obstacles” to Russian grain and fertilizer exports are not resolved during the present 60-day extension period.
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Key Developments
- Ukraine Aid From Chelsea Sale Delayed as Approval Process Drags
- Ukraine Rating Downgraded by S&P on Debt Restructuring Plan
- Macron Urges Xi to Bring Putin ‘Back to Reason’ Over Ukraine
- Zara Owner Gets Approval to Sell Russian Business to UAE’s Daher
- Ukraine Has Decimated Its Oligarchs But Now Fears New Ones
(All times CET)
Russia Warns Grain Deal At Risk if ‘Obstacles’ Not Resolved (11:30 a.m.)
Russia may quit the safe-transit deal for Ukrainian grain shipments from the Black Sea if “obstacles” to Russian grain and fertilizer exports aren’t resolved during the present 60-day extension period, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in Ankara after talks with his Turkish counterpart.
“If there is no further progress in removing obstacles to export of Russian fertilizers and grains, we will consider whether this deal is necessary,” Lavrov said.
Despite Lavrov’s comment, Russia is forecast to be the world’s largest wheat exporter in the 2022-23 season and its export prices have become the de facto global benchmark. Moscow’s foreign ministry this week discussed with the UN the Ukraine grain deal and the TogliattiAzot ammonia pipeline, which was suspended after Russia’s invasion of its neighbor a year ago.
Read more: Global Food Supply Risks Rise as Key Traders Leave Russia
Lavrov in Turkey for Talks on Ukraine, Grain Deal (10 a.m.)
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is in Turkey for talks that are expected to center on the safe-transit agreement that allows Ukraine to export grain from three Black Sea ports to the world market. The agreement, originally brokered by Turkey and the UN in July, was extended for a second time in March.
Lavrov arrived in Ankara on Thursday and met with his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu. The pair are expected to hold a joint press conference, and Lavrov will also meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
China ‘Trying to Have It Both Ways,’ Blinken Says (9 a.m.)
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said some of the peace ideas China has proposed for the Ukraine conflict are “positive,” but that Beijing is “trying to have it both ways” by advancing a cease-fire proposal while also backing Vladimir Putin.
“It wants to be seen as trying to advance peace and at the same time, it continues to support Russia in different ways, rhetorically making its case in international institutions, advancing Russian propaganda,” the top US diplomat said in an interview with the European news network Euronews.
China’s focus “should be on convincing Russia to actually respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and to give back the territory that it seized by force,” Blinken said.
Ukraine Aid From Chelsea Sale is Delayed (9 a.m.)
A foundation being set up to aid Ukraine with $2.9 billion in proceeds from Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich’s sale of Chelsea Football Club is nearly ready to go with a proposed chair lined up, but UK government approval is taking longer than expected.
“There are complexities and delays based around political approval both between the UK and the EU and within the UK,” said Mike Penrose, the former Unicef UK chief executive who is acting CEO for the new foundation.
Abramovich sold the club to a consortium led by US investor Todd Boehly in May, after he was sanctioned by the UK and the EU over his alleged links to Vladimir Putin. Nearly a year on from the sale, the funds remain frozen in a UK bank account and none of them have reached Ukraine.
Read more: Ukraine Aid From Chelsea Sale Delayed as Approval Process Drags
Russian Troops Regaining Momentum in Bakhmut, UK Says (8:30 a.m.)
Kremlin forces “have regained some momentum” in their effort to capture the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, the UK defense ministry said.
The troops have “highly likely advanced into the town center” and now threaten Ukraine’s key supply route into town, the UK said in a Twitter thread. “Russian regular forces, likely including airborne troops, have probably reinforced the area, and Russia is again using artillery more effectively in the sector.”
Ukraine Rating Downgraded by S&P on Debt Restructuring Plan (8 a.m.)
Ukraine’s credit score was cut by S&P Global Ratings on Friday after the government unveiled a plan to restructure its external debt before mid-2024.
The war-torn nation was lowered to CCC from CCC+, with a negative outlook. The ratings firm cited plans for an upcoming debt restructuring as part of Ukraine’s recent arrangement with the International Monetary Fund for a $15.6 billion bailout.
The downgrade puts Ukraine on par with Ethiopia. In February, Moody’s Investors Service cut Ukraine’s credit rating to the second-lowest score of Ca, on par with Argentina, citing “long-lasting challenges” to its economy and public finances from the war with Russia.
Read more: Ukraine Rating Downgraded by S&P on Debt Restructuring Plan
Pentagon Probes Leak of Secret War Plans on Social Media (7 a.m.)
The Pentagon is investigating a leak of classified war documents detailing US and NATO plans for building up the Ukrainian military ahead of a planned offensive against Russia, the New York Times reported.
The documents, dated from about five weeks ago, were posted this week on social media channels, including Twitter and Telegram, the popular Russian messaging app. They focus on what arms Ukraine may need for its offensive but didn’t detail battle plans.
Apparent modifications — for example, to overstate US estimates of Ukrainian war casualties — suggest an effort at disinformation by Russia, the newspaper reported, citing Biden administration officials.
US Opposes Offering Ukraine a NATO Membership Roadmap, FT Reports (5:25 p.m.)
The US is opposing efforts by some European nations to offer Ukraine a clear “road map” to NATO membership at the alliance’s July summit in Lithuania, the Financial Times reported, citing four officials involved in the talks.
Lines were drawn at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels this week, the newspaper reported. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has warned that he’ll only attend the summit if given tangible steps toward membership in the military alliance, the FT said.
The US is instead urging allies to stay focused on short-term military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine as Russia’s invasion moves deeper into its second year, according to the report.
Russian Defense Minister Visits Armored Vehicle Factory (5 p.m.)
Russian defense minster Sergei Shoigu visited the Arzamas machine-building plant in the Nizhny Novgorod region east of Moscow to inspect the production of “armored personnel carriers of various modifications and Tigr armored vehicles” as well as missiles and armaments, the ministry said on Thursday.
It was the second time in as many weeks that Shoigu has visited military production lines. Last week, he visited munitions factories in two regions and announced that Russia was boosting its production of conventional and high-precision ammunition.
Putin, Lukashenko Hold Talks on Defense, Economy (3 p.m.)
Vladimir Putin, Alexander Lukashenko and top aides held meetings at the Kremlin Thursday on cooperative economic and defense ties, a day after Russia’s leader and his Belarusian ally held a one-on-one meeting that went long into the night.
The talks come after Putin announced last month that Moscow would station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus for the first time. Belarus was a staging ground for Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
“Putin likely focused on strengthening Russian economic control over Belarus,” the US-based think-bank Institute for the Study of War said in an update. “Lukashenko delivered boilerplate rhetoric that continues to indicate that he has no intention of involving Belarus further in Russia’s war effort.”
Ruble Slides as Traders Speculate on Impact of Shell’s Exit (12:52 p.m.)
Speculation that Shell Plc may convert and repatriate more than $1 billion of ruble earnings from the sale of a project in the Far East has helped drive the Russian currency to its weakest level in a year.
The possible deal — equivalent to as little as one fifth the daily ruble volumes prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — contributed to pushing the currency past the psychologically important level of 80 per dollar for the first time since April 2022 on Thursday.
Read more: Ruble Jolted as Traders Speculate on Impact of Shell’s Exit
Macron Urges Xi to Help Start Negotiations (11:15 a.m.)
“I know I can count on you to bring Russia back to reason and everybody to the negotiation table,” Macron told Xi during a meeting in Beijing on Thursday. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is traveling with Macron.
While Macron doesn’t expect China to drop its close partnership with Russia, he does see room for potentially significant moves from Beijing, according to a senior French official. Macron was also expected to warn Xi against supplying Russia with weapons.
Read more: Macron Urges Xi to Bring Putin ‘Back to Reason’ Over Ukraine
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