Opponents of Rishi Sunak’s planned Brexit deal are ready to join forces against the prime minister’s proposals, as he attempts to convince his own party to back plans to end a long-running trade dispute with the European Union.
(Bloomberg) — Opponents of Rishi Sunak’s planned Brexit deal are ready to join forces against the prime minister’s proposals, as he attempts to convince his own party to back plans to end a long-running trade dispute with the European Union.
A hard-line grouping of pro-Brexit Tory MPs, known as the European Research Group, is set to meet later Tuesday with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, which has long objected to the EU retaining a role in the region.
Earlier, Sunak hosted a Cabinet meeting then met with Conservative backbenchers in a push to resolve the standoff over Northern Ireland, one of the biggest political issues of his premiership.
Sunak told his cabinet Tuesday that “intensive negotiations with the EU continue on resolving the issues” caused by the existing agreement, according to an emailed readout. The prime minister has three priorities, his office said: protecting Northern Ireland’s position in the UK, safeguarding the 25-year-old peace deal for the region, and ensuring the free flow of trade within the UK.
After long negotiations with the EU, Sunak hasn’t yet shown MPs the final text of any deal, and was instead trying to win around skeptical MPs and prevent the DUP from rejecting his plan outright.
The proposed solution centers around “green” and “red” customs lanes for goods flowing from Great Britain to Northern Ireland and Europe respectively, which would end onerous checks and paperwork on goods traveling within the UK.
However, the UK has been unable to convince the EU that the European Court of Justice should have no role in Northern Ireland going forward — a key concern for pro-unionist politicians in Belfast and London. The DUP and pro-Brexit MPs are also worried that EU regulations they have no say in approving would continue to apply in Northern Ireland.
Even as Sunak wrangles with his own party in London, Foreign Secretary James Cleverly is due to talk with European Commission Vice-President Maros Sefcovic later on Tuesday — the pair’s third conversation in five days.
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Old Wounds
Sunak is trying to draw a line under a dispute with the EU that has poisoned relations since Britain left the bloc three years ago. The UK and unionists in Northern Ireland argue that the existing Brexit deal hampers trade between the region and Great Britain. The issue is reviving divisions in Westminster and across the Irish Sea that fatally undermined former Prime Minister Theresa May.
One pro-Brexit Conservative backbencher told Bloomberg they were concerned with the outline of a potential deal that had been shared with them by Downing Street.
They will only make a final decision once a final text is available, they said, but needed further reassurances over a consent mechanism in respect of the role of the ECJ in Northern Ireland. The government should not proceed without the support of the DUP, they added.
Former Cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg echoed those concerns on a Conservative Home podcast Tuesday, adding: “I don’t know why so much political capital has been spent on something without getting the DUP and the ERG onside first.”
Tory MP Geoffrey Clifton-Brown said skeptics should not undermine the deal. “I hope that Rishi is not going to allow the ERG and DUP to de-rail the deal,” he said in an interview. “If we don’t accept this deal we will retain the status quo and not allow the veil to be lifted on the bright future Northern Ireland has ahead of it.”
The ERG is not the political force it was at the height of the Brexit wars in Parliament in 2019. Some of its membership are now bound by the collective responsibility of government and its organizing power is diminished, according to people familiar with the government’s thinking.
There is an open question over whether the ERG could swing any future vote in the House of Commons — though it would be politically awkward for Sunak to rely on the opposition Labour Party to see his deal over the line.
But after expectations grew that a deal could be announced as soon as Tuesday, one person familiar with the prime minister’s plans downplayed the chances of a breakthrough any time soon.
Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar also suggested no solution was imminent. At a Dublin briefing with reporters, Varadkar said he “can’t say whether or not we’ll have a protocol agreement this week,” but that a “huge amount of progress has been made.”
Wooing Unionists
As well as seeking to win around his Tory opponents, Sunak is also trying to persuade the DUP to back his approach. The party has blocked the formation of the region’s power-sharing government for more than a year in protest at the post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland.
Sunak’s spokesman Max Blain told reporters in London on Tuesday that the government would continue to engage with parties in Northern Ireland to keep them appraised of their talks with the EU — which still include “some unresolved issues.”
A person familiar with the government’s strategy suggested not all of the DUP needed to be brought onside for the premier to press ahead with his plans.
Downing Street was cheered by DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson’s cautious optimism at the end of last week, even if other members of the unionist party such as Sammy Wilson have since spoken out broadly against the prospect of a deal.
Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson is also a factor. At the weekend a person close to Johnson said he believes Sunak would be making a great mistake if he drops the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill — legislation to allow ministers to unilaterally rewrite the bulk of the protocol. That’s a view taken up in recent days by several pro-Brexit MPs.
–With assistance from Peter O’Dwyer.
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