As US President Joe Biden strode into a packed crowd assembled in the square outside Warsaw’s Royal Castle, the chilly night felt as much like a high school pep rally as it did a somber foreign policy address.
(Bloomberg) — As US President Joe Biden strode into a packed crowd assembled in the square outside Warsaw’s Royal Castle, the chilly night felt as much like a high school pep rally as it did a somber foreign policy address.
Beams of light fanned out and pulsed over the audience. The historic building was cast in blue and yellow light to mirror Ukraine’s flag. A thumping anthem from a Norwegian DJ prompted cheers of “freedom.”
The Tuesday scene read as a celebration – a cinematic capstone of a presidency Biden has framed as a battle of democratic ideals against populist autocracy. The sense was only heightened by the president’s return Monday from a surprise trip into the heart of Ukraine, where he marked a year since Russian forces had invaded by proclaiming that Ukraine had prevailed.
But the true success of the visit will be measured in coming months as those notions are tested by ever-more challenging political conditions.
The trip was a defiant show of strength and one that aides said underscored both massive miscalculations by Russian leader Vladimir Putin and the dividend of the costly and difficult investment in democracy that the US and its allies have made.
“President Putin is confronted with something today that he didn’t think was possible a year ago: The democracies of the world have grown stronger, not weaker,” Biden said. “But the autocrats of the world have grown weaker, not stronger.”
For Biden himself, the measure of his visit to Ukraine and Poland will ultimately be whether he galvanized others to sustain their support – while bolstering his domestic political standing.
Russia appears to be readying a new mass mobilization effort, portending more brutal battles in the fight to secure Ukraine. Earlier Tuesday, Putin announced Russia was suspending its participation in the New START treaty with the US, pausing a program that limited each nation’s nuclear stockpile. And US officials have openly fretted that China is considering providing Moscow with additional aid that could assist their military and reduce the sting of allied sanctions.
While the US and its allies have succeeded in delivering new and more substantial weapons and defense platforms, substantial logistical challenges remain in delivering the arms and ammunition that have been pledged. In addition to strengthening supply chains, Ukraine is also asking for new and more advanced weapons for their fight – including fighter jets.
At home, the themes of the war – which has come to largely define the foreign policy of Biden’s presidency – dovetail with Biden’s preferred framing for the 2024 election, where he’s expected to again define the contest as a battle against extremism and for democratic ideals.
Sporting his signature aviator sunglasses, Monday’s stroll through the war-scarred streets of Kyiv also offered a tailor-made signature moment for Biden’s looming reelection campaign. The daring scene was an implicit challenge to attacks on the 80-year-old president’s age, and comes on the heels of a widely heralded State of the Union address where Biden was praised for deftly improvising a rebuttal to some lawmakers’ jeering.
‘Bold, Risky’
“It was bold, it was risky, and it should leave no doubt in anyone’s mind that Joe Biden is a leader who takes commitment seriously, and the US is committed to continuing to support Ukraine for as long as it takes,” White House communications director Kate Bedingfield told reporters Monday.
Any reelection bid is likely to hinge, however, on the eventual outcome of a war that is testing Biden’s theory that collective action and democratic ideals will prevail.
Domestically, Republican leaders – including former President Donald Trump, who is already running for the 2024 GOP nomination, criticized Biden for prioritizing Ukraine over domestic concerns. Internationally, the US is seeking to hold together its alliance – rooted in Europe and the G7 – as the war enters its second year, and the costs and complications grow.
To strengthen international resolve, Biden has repeatedly sought to contrast American intelligence and Ukrainian military success against Russia’s tactical failures. With mounting casualties and supplies of Iranian drones and other key battlefield supplies woefully outdated or in short supply, the spring also brings an inflection point for Putin.
Biden stressed that coalition efforts were intensifying, including with new sanctions to be announced later this week and a 2024 NATO summit to be held in the US.
The $480 million arms announcement accompanying Biden’s visit also emphasized the evolving nature of the war – and allied support. The package – the thirty-second of the war – provided ammunition, rockets, radar, and communications systems, but no new technology. Instead, it was focused on the type of maintenance and resupply increasingly important for Ukraine to maintain its defense.
Biden also seized on the situation to paint Putin as weakened and desperate in a message he clearly intended to resonate in other capitals.
“One year into this war Putin no longer doubts the strength of our coalition. But he still doubts our conviction,” Biden said. “He doubts our staying power. He doubts our continued support for Ukraine. He doubts whether our NATO allies can remain unified. But there should be no doubt: Our support for Ukraine will not waver, NATO will not be divided, and we will not tire.”
Still, Biden offered implicit acknowledgment that the coming months will require him to demonstrate strength at home. The president is facing a new and narrow Republican-controlled House that’s expressed skepticism about funding the conflict.
In Kyiv, Biden looked to assure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, stressing “that there not be any doubt, none whatsoever, about U.S. support for Ukraine.”
“For all the disagreement we have in our Congress on some issues, there is significant agreement on support for Ukraine,” he said.
–With assistance from Alberto Nardelli and Jenny Leonard.
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