Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic used to speak regularly with his Russian counterpart. The conflict is now testing relations between the two.
(Bloomberg) — Serbia, traditionally one of Russia’s closest allies in Europe, is trying to put some distance between itself and Moscow as the war in Ukraine strains ties between the two countries and their leaders.
In an interview in Belgrade, President Aleksandar Vucic dismissed territorial claims in Ukraine by Vladimir Putin and predicted the “worst is yet to come” for the conflict as both sides dig in. Vucic, who had dozens of meetings with Putin in recent years and took Russian lessons to be able to speak with him directly, said he hadn’t talked with his counterpart for “many months.”
“We, from the very beginning, said that we were not able and we could not support Russia’s invasion against Ukraine,” Vucic said at his residence in the Serbian capital on Tuesday. “For us, Crimea is Ukraine, Donbas is Ukraine — and it’ll remain so.”
Serbia has historically sought to balance its geopolitical and economic interests between east and west, but the comments underline the gradual shift since Putin’s invasion of Ukraine almost 11 months ago. That’s significant as European allies try to isolate Russia with the continent facing its most perilous period since the Cold War.
Belgrade’s reluctance to join the US and the European Union in sanctions against Russia put Serbia under increased pressure to cut ties with Putin and his energy supplies even as the war hit the economy and sent inflation soaring.
Vucic, who was re-elected by a landslide last year, says EU membership is his ultimate goal. But he is resisting the sanctions effort because of Russian backing for his refusal to recognize the independence of Kosovo and Serbia’s own experience with economic isolation. Russia also sells natural gas to his country at below the market rate.
Yet it would be wrong to assume his government fully endorses the leadership in Moscow, he said. “We are not always jubilant about some of their stances,” said Vucic, 52. “We have a traditionally good relationship, but it doesn’t mean that we support every single decision or most of the decisions that are coming from the Kremlin.”
The alliance between the two Eastern Orthodox nations goes back centuries. After cooling during Soviet times under Yugoslav leader Josip Broz Tito, it regained momentum during the Balkan wars and was then cemented by NATO’s 1999 intervention that ended the war in Kosovo.
Economically, Serbia has been moving out of Russia’s orbit for years. The country accounts for about 6% of Serbia’s foreign trade. The EU is by far the biggest partner. To steady finances late last year, Serbia secured €2.4 billion ($2.6 billion) funding from the International Monetary Fund and a $1 billion loan from United Arab Emirates, which has been deepening ties with the Balkan country.
Yet, Serbia still stands out in Europe — along with Hungary — for its position on Russia. Its national airline maintained routes to the country and Belgrade is a destination of choice for Russians, albeit more recently exiles fleeing Putin’s regime. A poll taken last summer showed Putin was the most favored world leader for Serbs.
Russian mercenary group Wagner ran an advertisement in Serbia this month looking for recruits to fight in Ukraine. Vucic, however, was firm: “Wagner will not do that in Serbia,” he said in the interview, citing laws preventing Serb nationals joining up. The intervention won praise from the US ambassador to Belgrade, Christopher Hill.
“I was glad to hear from President Vucic and his administration that they can see the threat to peace and stability posed by Wagner potentially operating in Serbia,” Hill said in an interview on Tuesday. “It’s telling that this is the best Russia has to offer to Serbs: the chance to die in a faraway land for someone else’s war of aggression.”
Read More: War Hangover in Divided Kosovo Is a Warning for Europe Defaced Putin Mural Tells the Story of Russia’s Waning Influence Russians Find Refuge From Putin in Europe’s New ‘Casablanca’
Kosovo remains the issue that binds them, though. Serbia considers Kosovo the cradle of its nationhood — much like Putin views Ukraine — and recognition of its sovereignty remains the biggest obstacle to any hope Serbia will fulfil its goal of joining the EU.
Vucic said he’s thankful to Russia for backing him on Kosovo, and that explains why Serbia can’t back economic measures against Moscow. “We were under sanctions for almost ten years, eight years actually, and we don’t believe that’s a solution,” he said.
The Serb president, who served as information minister to former strongman Slobodan Milosevic, has been criticized by Kosovar authorities for stoking tension in the past. He said he’s been working to deescalate a standoff in recent weeks after Serbs living in Kosovo’s north put up barricades to defy the authorities in Pristina.
That came amid a sharp deterioration in relations after the predominantly ethnic Albanian leadership pushed Kosovo Serbs to adopt its identity cards and car license plates. He praised NATO-led forces known as KFOR for the professional way they handled the situation.
Still, tensions in mainly Serb-populated north Kosovo are ten times worse than usual, he said, adding he invested great efforts to convince Serbs to remove barricades because “otherwise it would have led us to a total disaster.”
QuicktakeWhat You Need to Know About Rising Serbia-Kosovo Tensions
Vucic said it would be more realistic to take small steps than to expect some major and quick deal that would include Kosovo’s recognition by Serbia, he said.
“We need to change the situation on the ground with small steps to build confidence between the two factions and then to see how we can tackle everything else,” Vucic said. “Not dreaming something that we all know that is not going to happen.”
Serbs have gotten weary after waiting for decades to be included and now a majority is no longer keen to join the EU, according to opinion polls. That goes against the tide in other western Balkan nations that are eager to join the bloc, including Albania and North Macedonia.
Vucic is convinced that when and if that choice is put to citizens in a referendum, they will vote in favor of joining and cement their pivot westward. For that to happen, he said they will need assurances that membership is realistic. “I know that EU is our path,” he said. “There are no other paths.”
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
©2023 Bloomberg L.P.